Pine Mountain Club, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

487
FXUS66 KHNX 221136
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
336 AM PST Sat Feb 22 2025


.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Dry conditions will prevail through the middle of next week
as high pressure dominates.

2. There is a high probability for a warming rend across the
region this weekend with above average temperatures continuing
through next week. A few record high maximum temperature may be
broken.

3. The Climate Prediction Center is indicating an 70 to 80
percent chance for above normal temperatures in the six to ten
day period and a 40 to 50 percent chance of above normal
temperatures in the eight to fourteen day period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
With high pressure building over the West Coast, dry conditions
with warming temperatures will now dominate the Central
California Interior. Max temperatures did manage to reach the 70
degree mark in a few locations on Friday as more spots will see
it today. Latest Probability of Exceedance of reaching 70
degrees ranges from 50%-70% over Merced and Madera and in the
90% range from Fresno southward. Winds are not expected to
become an issue over the next day or so as surface pressure
gradients remain at near +/-1mb from KSFO to KLAS. At this
point, the building ridge pattern over the West will allow for
the continuation of the warming trend as near record highs may
be reached early next week.

With temperatures across the San Joaquin Valley running up from
24 hours ago, the warming trend has already started. Based on
progged max temperatures today, places like Merced and Madera
have the best potential of reaching near record values.
Otherwise, the valley will remain below record temperature
levels over the next several days with a possible slight cool
down on Tuesday as a disturbance rides over the ridge pattern
and across Northern California and the Pacific Northwest. Yet,
the cool-down will keep temperatures in the lower 70s as PoE of
reaching 70 degrees drops to the 50%-60% range. The percentages
rebound by Wednesday as temperatures push back into the mid 70s.
Another disturbance on Friday may lower temperatures, but keep
max temperatures in the 70s.

Precipitation-wise, the disturbance introducing the late week
cool-down is showing signs of digging south and close to 30
North Latitude (Southern California). While ensemble upper-air
analysis does show a bit of uncertainty on the trajectory of the
upper low, ensemble precipitation analysis does hint toward
possible moisture entering Central California on
Thursday/Friday. Based on the length on time toward the start of
the precipitation event (Day 7), will lean on light accumulation
for now and monitor the situation for more detail analysis.

&&

.AVIATION...12Z:

VFR. ISOL MVFR near KMCE-KMAE-KVIS until 18Z for BR/FG possible
from ground fog formation build up. Probability of MVFR is
40-60 percent with IFR probability at 10-20 percent for those
aforementioned areas. Other VFR prevails across the remainder of
Interior Central California.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ISSUED:  02/21/2025 12:45
EXPIRES: 02/22/2025 23:59
On Saturday February 22 2025, Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status
is: No Burning Unless Registered in Fresno, Kern, Kings, and
Madera Counties. Burning Discouraged in Merced and Tulare
Counties, and Kern (Greater Frazier Park Area) and Sequoia
National Park and Forest.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

Public/Aviation....Molina

weather.gov/hanford